An increase within the want for computer systems and information facilities to energy AI is inflicting an enormous scarcity of RAM, driving reminiscence costs sharply greater. Now, analyst agency IDC predicts that this may trigger smartphone shipments to plummet by 12.9% this yr, making it the largest single-year dip in additional than a decade.
Earlier this yr, IDC reported that producers shipped 1.26 billion units in 2025. The agency predicts that determine will drop to only 1.12 billion this yr.
“The reminiscence disaster will trigger greater than a brief decline; it marks a structural reset of the complete market, basically reshaping the lengthy‑time period TAM [total addressable market], the seller panorama, and the product combine,” stated Nabila Popal, senior analysis director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Cell Telephone Tracker, in a press release.
Popal stated that due to reminiscence scarcity, the common retail value of a smartphone is anticipated to rise by 14%.
“We count on consolidation as smaller gamers exit, and low-end distributors face sharp cargo declines amid provide constraints and decrease demand at greater value factors. Though shipments will witness a document drop, smartphone ASP [average selling price] is projected to rise 14% to a document $523 this yr,” she added.
Popal additionally famous that rising part prices might make the sub-$100 smartphone “completely uneconomical,” pricing out cellphone makers that manufacture units at that value level.
The agency stated that, due to this development, shipments within the Center East and Africa will drop greater than 20% year-over-year. China and the broader Asia Pacific area (excluding Japan) may also see declines of 10.5% and 13.1%, respectively.
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June 9, 2026
IDC added that it expects RAM costs to stabilize by mid-2027.
Final yr, one other analyst agency, Counterpoint, additionally forecast a decline in smartphone shipments, nevertheless it projected a fall smaller dip of simply 2.6%.
Earlier this yr, Nothing co-founder and CEO Carl Pei additionally warned that smartphones will value extra in 2026 as reminiscence prices for smartphones rise. “Manufacturers now face a easy alternative: elevate costs by 30% or extra in some instances, or downgrade specs. The ‘extra specs for much less cash’ mannequin that many worth manufacturers have been constructed on is now not sustainable in 2026,” he stated.
“Because of this, some markets, notably entry and mid-tier segments, are prone to shrink by 20% or extra, and types which have traditionally dominated these segments will wrestle,” Pei added.
