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TPG’s consultants predict bank card tendencies for 2026


With the solar setting on 2025, we have been musing on what new and thrilling adjustments for bank cards, factors and miles might arrive in 2026. The previous yr featured sufficient product launches, card refreshes and program adjustments to make our heads spin, so we’re desirous to see if that momentum continues into the brand new yr.

I reached out to a few of my fellow bank card consultants right here at TPG to see what they consider the methods our business would possibly change in 2026. Listed below are our ideas.

Refreshes of mid-tier bank cards

2025 ushered in refreshes of three of the preferred premium bank cards available on the market: the Chase Sapphire Reserve® (see charges and costs), the American Specific Platinum Card® and The Enterprise Platinum Card® from American Specific.

With these out of the best way, each TPG bank cards author Augusta Stone and I imagine we’ll see issuers give attention to their mid-tier merchandise subsequent.

Man making an online purchase at home
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I anticipate Chase to show its consideration to the beloved Chase Sapphire Most popular® Card (see charges and costs). We’ll seemingly see an annual payment improve as much as round $150, and a minimum of one or two new assertion credit to account for that.

This could be in keeping with what we have seen Chase do earlier than, similar to when it refreshed the United℠ Explorer Card (see charges and costs) and elevated its payment from $95 to $150 (after the primary cardholder yr).

In Augusta’s opinion, the American Specific® Inexperienced Card undoubtedly “wants a refresh.” She famous that the Amex Platinum and American Specific® Gold Card each acquired refreshes previously couple of years, so it is sensible for it to be the Amex Inexperienced’s flip. The Amex Inexperienced’s lack of its LoungeBuddy profit with out a substitute makes Augusta suppose Amex could also be prepared to offer it a brand new coat of paint.

The knowledge for the American Specific Inexperienced Card has been collected independently by The Factors Man. The cardboard particulars on this web page haven’t been reviewed or supplied by the cardboard issuer.

Persevering with devaluations of loyalty program switch charges

Worsening switch ratios are a comparatively new development this yr, albeit an unlucky one. Amex and Citi each devalued their Emirates Skywards switch ratios. Plus, Amex introduced a coming discount of its Cathay Pacific Asia Miles switch ratio.

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Lead author Katie Genter and senior author Ben Smithson — two of TPG’s prime factors and miles consultants — imagine this development will proceed into 2026. Ben labeled it “worrying” and stated he fears it’s going to grow to be extra widespread.

Katie agreed, however whereas she suspects some applications will proceed to alter switch ratios to be lower than 1:1, she additionally believes that Chase will preserve a 1:1 ratio for all of its applications, as it is a level of satisfaction for the issuer.

woman at computer
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The event of switch ratio devaluations underscores a level we regularly make right here at TPG: Do not hoard your factors and miles. You by no means know once they’ll grow to be much less worthwhile, so redeem them for journey now.

Elevated emphasis on issuer journey portals

We have seen issuers present a extra vested curiosity of their journey portals this yr — notably Chase. Alongside its refresh of the Sapphire Reserve, Chase launched Factors Enhance to encourage eligible cardholders to make extra bookings by way of its platform, Chase Journey℠.

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Augusta and Ben each imagine that we’ll see this flip into a correct development in 2026. Ben stated that with card issuers’ journey portals changing into extra advanced, he expects to see extra incentives, like excessive redemption values to e-book inside the card issuer’s ecosystem relatively than switch externally.

He warned, nonetheless, that cardholders ought to keep in mind that it may be dearer to e-book by way of a journey portal.

Augusta believes that Factors Enhance will ignite a brand new issuer initiative to launch competing advantages. She highlighted Amex, Capital One and Citi because the seemingly contenders to launch a perk that competes with Factors Enhance. I count on Amex to be the primary to bat with this, because it’s Chase’s closest competitor.

Extra dynamically priced awards, much less time to snag them

Most airline loyalty applications use dynamic pricing at this level, however we largely have not seen them use it for tickets that are not on their very own metallic.

Ben believes we’ll see this happen on a bigger scale in 2026. He famous Air Canada Aeroplan’s use of dynamic pricing for United and Emirates awards as a superb instance. He views this as a probably destructive improvement, warning that we may see long-haul firstclass Emirates flights as excessive as 400,000 factors for a single flight, for instance.

Woman with bills
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Alongside the looming risk of astronomically priced awards, Katie thinks we’ll have much less time to snag the redemptions we wish. She’s seen a development of award availability disappearing quickly, even when she acts instantly upon receiving an availability alert. With increasingly folks investing in factors and miles, Katie stated it’s going to solely grow to be more durable to search out good worth redemptions.

Nonetheless, although, she encourages everybody to remain on the hunt for good offers.

Card launches galore

Whereas 2025 did see the launch of a handful of latest bank cards, the information cycle felt largely dominated by outstanding card refreshes. 2026 may very properly reveal the alternative, with high-visibility product launches.

I am anticipating Chase’s extremely anticipated premium World of Hyatt card to reach in 2026. As somebody who predominantly stays with Hyatt, I will be paying shut consideration to any motion right here.

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Bilt has already confirmed main adjustments to its bank card lineup because it shifts to a partnership with Cardless. Given Bilt plans to launch three brand-new playing cards as a part of its Cardless debut, it’s extremely seemingly its new suite of card merchandise will grow to be one of many greatest speaking factors of 2026.

The knowledge for the Bilt Mastercard has been collected independently by The Factors Man. The cardboard particulars on this web page haven’t been reviewed or supplied by the cardboard issuer.

Augusta additionally thinks we might lastly see Chase launch a correct competitor to the Amex Gold. That is one thing I have been asking for so long as I can keep in mind, because the Amex Gold at present lacks a real competitor from any of the foremost issuers.

Associated: Why Chase wants a competitor to the Amex Gold

Extra welcome bonus restrictions

We noticed Chase undertake an initiative this yr to limit the power of present and former cardholders to earn contemporary welcome bonuses on shopper Sapphire and sure Ink merchandise. Capital One additionally made it more durable for sure folks to earn bonuses on its Enterprise merchandise.

Katie believes we’ll see this unlucky development proceed, with issuers prioritizing household guidelines and personalised affords. For instance, I imagine we may see Chase develop its current restrictions on Sapphire and Ink welcome bonuses to their cobranded playing cards.

We might also see different issuers undertake American Specific’s technique of providing a spread of welcome affords for particular person playing cards, versus a set provide.

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Further restrictions on lounge entry

Lounge entry is likely one of the most beloved advantages on bank cards. In current occasions, we have seen issuers place restrictions on entry, similar to Capital One’s upcoming rule adjustments for its Capital One lounges. Whereas irritating for cardholders, these adjustments are a response to rising complaints about wait occasions and overcrowding.

Outside of JFK Capital One lounge
ZACH GRIFF/THE POINTS GUY

Katie thinks that we’ll proceed to see lounge house owners place restrictions on entry. She famous that whereas lounge entry is a favourite profit, after getting it, you could run into lengthy traces or crowded lounges, which isn’t a premium expertise. For that motive, she sees lounge house owners prioritizing methods to restrict entry and cut back crowding.

AI infiltrates bank cards

Affiliate bank cards author Stephanie Stevens has been musing lots on AI. She believes that bank card issuers will begin utilizing AI to help them with creating focused, dynamic welcome affords for potential cardholders. She additionally thinks AI can be used to handle lounge waitlists and overcrowding.

Young African man upset about phantom award space
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After all, introducing AI into something raises safety and privateness issues, particularly when it’s granted entry to delicate monetary knowledge. It stays to be seen the place and the way issuers will embrace these instruments.

Backside line

2026 is certain to be an thrilling yr. We count on loads of attention-grabbing developments — some constructive, some destructive. No matter what occurs, one factor stays the identical: Factors and miles are one of the simplest ways to unlock wonderful journey experiences.

We’ll nonetheless be right here that can assist you try this, it doesn’t matter what subsequent yr brings.

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